Thursday, July 31, 2008

Federer Falls, No. 1 Ranking on the Precipice

Ivo Karlovic upset the defending champion 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(5) in Cincinnati today.

Hear from Roger Federer himself.

The official No. 1 ranking is now on Rafael Nadal's racquet.


cate said...

Roger blew the game with two missed hits in both TB. It was a great game for him. Just unlucky.

Oh well. #1 for 4 years, 235 weeks consecutive ain't bad.

Karen said...

Quick question: How many weeks does Rafael Nadal hold the No. 1 position? Sucker for punishment. That is what I am. Drunk as a skunk and disappointed as hail, but as a Fed fan I saw it coming, knew it was coming. Does not get any easier to deal with. Congrats to all Rafa fans, of which there now appears to be in the millions. They are all over the place. Who knew. I thought I would have been more disappointed at Roger not being No.1 but when I look at the careers of Venus/Serena. They have not been NO. 1 since 2003, yet they are still winning majors and still spoken of in awe by players and commentators alike. Right now I see Roger entering that echleon of players who no matter how they are playing, they are the ones to beat. For right now that player is Rafa. All the best to him.

Michael said...

Nadal doesn't have to win any more to get #1. Because of the Olympics and the weird schedule, the points from last year's Canada Master's and Cincinnati are not yet off the boards* (Fed | Nadal). When those expire, Nadal will have the #1 ranking, regardless of what happens now**.

As to karen's question about Nadal's loss of #1- it will take a while because he doesn't have to defend many points for a long time. Federer is the only one who can catch him, and he has far more points to defend at the end of this year (Master's Cup and US Open). Not until 2009, I'd guess, though Federer might take it for a week or something.

*What a lame way to calculate points: the same event from different years should never be counted in the same set of points.

**Details for those who care (or who can correct me):
Fed | Nadal
6605 | 6305
+75 | +125 (or more)
-350 | -225
6330 | 6205
after this week, if Nadal doesn't win any more matches. So Nadal has to reach the finals to become #1 now, not win like the Cincinnati website says. (That article claims Nadal will have 6730 points if he wins, but I sure don't know how they figure that.)

That same logic applied to the following week sees Federer lose the Cincinnati 500 points from 2007, but Nadal just 5:
Fed | Nadal
6330 | 6205 (or more)
-500 | -5
+175*** | 0***
6005 | 6200

***best case scenario for Federer: winning LA and getting 175 points, and Nadal doesn't get any points, unlikely in any case and Nadal would still be up 200 points.

So as of next Monday (not this) Nadal will be #1, regardless of what happens in Cincinnati.

tangerine said...

So now we've reached the tipping point. Is this a jump the shark moment in Roger's career? Only 3 posts for a Federer loss nowadays, people aren't even properly shocked anymore. It's the same story on the message boards, I think everybody's suffering from ennui. Even Roger said that the past several weeks have been a blur.

Karen said...

I guess people have become so used to Roger winning that they are a bit stunned that he has been losing like this. Also, what do you say about Rafa. He is playing well. He is intense. He is the future No. 1 or you could go in the opposite direction and say what the hell is going on with Roger Federer. As we are all armchair pundits, we really dont know and frankly it would seem a lot of people really dont care. So Rafa gets to No.1, that is good, he has worked hard for it and he has finally achieved it OK then what next. Then will start come the questions of how long can he keep it, is he GOAT, has his game improved tremendously. Who can take him out and the best one of all Weak Era. It will come just give it time. I think a lot of people in this world just live to tear down other people. On the other hand - hooray for Cibulkova -again someone in the WTA is saving the WTA from having JJ crowned No. 1 - could it be possible that people do not really see her as a real No. 1- who would have thunk it?
Peter Bodo has a nice little write up about what is going on with Roger and I sort of think that might be problem. After winning the same tourneys year in, year out, including the majors, you must be feeling pretty burned out right about now. Long vacation anyone.

sgh07 said...

I'm sorry for Federer fans. I think Federer had just a little bit of bad luck yesterday playing with Kalovic.I still think he'll bounce back! he's a great player
I'm happy for Rafa, he deserves it. I think his game has improved tremendously but a GOAT talk is very premature, and I don't see the point of discussing that. Just enjoying the moment!
Happy for my fellow Rafa fans!